Learn about mutations and expected breeding outcomes.
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nixity
- Molting

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by nixity » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:10 am
ac12 wrote:Funny how the program tells you the theortical odds vs what you actually get. My BB and /BB pair gave me 5 BB chicks and 1 /BB. So despite the theoretical odds, it is still a roll of the dice.
Well - it's a statistical program.. there's no way it will be able to tell every individual what their clutches are going to be ;)
Generally when people ask me what a pair can produce I just don't use %'s. Blue x /Blue will give you Blue babies and Normal/Blue babies. I don't say 50/50 or throw in any figures.
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debbie276
- Bird Brain

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by debbie276 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:26 am
I think what people forget is that the forecastors are talking about what each chicks likelihood is of being a particular color NOT each clutch.
So 50% blue and 50% green isn't saying each clutch will have half blue and half green chicks. What it is saying is that each chick in that clutch has a 50% chance of being green and 50% chance of being blue.
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nixity
- Molting

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by nixity » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:43 am
Isn't it 6 of one, half dozen of another?
If you're talking about a clutch of 4 chicks, and each chick statistically can be either blue or normal/blue, than statistically the clutch as a whole has a statistic of 50% being blue, 50% being normal.
I.e., you have four eggs in a clutch - each egg has a 50/50 shot of being blue or normal, therefore, as a group, the entire clutch also has a 50/50 shot of being blue or normal (statistically).
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debbie276
- Bird Brain

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by debbie276 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:45 pm
true but each chick has a 50% chance of being blue therefore you could get an entire clutch of blue (or green)
I'm just saying that people need to remember the forecasters are giving the percentage for each CHICK and not the clutch as a whole.